This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Minnesota. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to win a great deal of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $130k being paid out. They also possess a Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. There are just 14 more chairs remaining so there will not be much more time to be eligible if you are trying to. I will try to receive my 3rd seat this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a small number of entries at the $25k prize, then I will probably have a few shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good quantity of play into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Jared Gordon — $9,200
I enjoy Gordon to get the win this weekend and he’ll be a cash match play of mine personally. There are better fights to target if we’re looking for 1st round knockouts however I’ll be focusing more on those in GPPs. I like the floor and the ceiling of Gordon here and that’s why he’s the money play of the week. I really don’t think Moret has the ability to actually examine the chin of Gordon’s which has appeared to be his biggest weakness recently. With the speed Gordon sets I think he has 100+ upside in a choice win and I don’t see him becoming completed here so he should have a good floor. I think his flooring in a triumph is likely 80+ also which is completely fine for money games. This is a catchy feeble, however this is my personal favorite cash game spot of this week.
GPP drama of this week — Francis Ngannou — $8,800
I had to proceed with Ngannou here. When he wins it is most likely a 1st round knockout. Which is +100 on the gambling line. If he receives that 1st round KO, then he scores over 100 DK points and in his $8.8k salary which will place him on the $25k lineup. He will be quite chalky this week though so make sure you load up on him if you’re multi-entering if you would like to get leverage within the area. I really do think JDS is a live underdog here as well, so I will be targeting both sides of the fight, but I really do see 100-105 DK points coming from Ngannou here and that can beat a good deal of the fighters priced above him.
Underdog drama of the week — Junior Albini — $8,000
I truly don’t love this card this week because I’m not choosing any actual underdogs with any confidence. Albini is the only man who’d be considered an underdog I think will win and that I did pick him put 1u on him as my free bet of the week. On DraftKings we are getting him for $200 less than Greene but I wouldn’t be shocked if Albini was the favorite on the betting line going into the fights. With these men being Heavyweights, it does not take much to acquire a knockout and should Albini can do this at $8k he can give me a rush at the perfect lineup.
Fade of the week — Emily Whitmire $8,500
I faded Whitmire in her previous fight as well and she burnt me by scoring a 1st round entry. I’m going back to the fade though and hoping the same does not happen. On a card where I am picking basically every favorite, I’d rather select the fighters with 1st round knockout upside over Whitmire at her 8.5k price label. I am not sure that moving to the floor is in her best interest in this fight and if she remains standing I don’t see her paying off value in a win. If I was making 150 lineups this week then I’d be taking some shots on Whitmire, but that I will probably only make ~20 and she won’t make my participant pool with this many lineups.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you Want my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 83-52 for +251.89u (+$25,421) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
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